• Ecaterina Grigoraș PhD student, Centre for Demographic Research, National Institute for Economic Research, Republic of Moldova
  • Olga Gagauz Habilitation in Sociology, Centre for Demographic Research, National Institute for Economic Research, Republic of Moldova




fertility transition, reproductive behavior, traditional fertility model, modern fertility model, Moldova


In Moldova, like in other countries of Eastern Europe, after the 1990s, fertility transition from the traditional model to the modern one is occurring. A stable fertility decline was observed up to 2004, while the total fertility rate settled at 1.7-1.8 births per woman in the following years. Although the indicator is higher comparative to other states, the factors determining this level and the likely future trends are essential questions to be asked. We assume some of the sociodemographic characteristics of women, the socioeconomic and cultural context affect the reproductive behavior and determine whether to keep the traditional model or switch to the modern one. The research is conducted to highlight the differences in women's reproductive behavior and the sociodemographic characteristics that influence the number of children born.

The research is based on the" Generations and Gender Survey" conducted in Moldova in 2020. A detailed profile of women's reproductive behaviour was presented on the base of four identified clusters, which characterize the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern model. Findings reveal that the traditional model of reproductive behavior with a large family or, at most, with two children is prevalent. Medium and high education, late age at marriage and urban residence of women have a negative effect on the number of children ever born. The study quantifies the heterogeneity of reproductive behavior and has important implications for the scientific perception of current trends and prospective fertility dynamics in Moldova.



Download data is not yet available.


Billari, F. C. (2017). A "Great Divergence" in Fertility? In: Poston, D. L. Jr. (ed.), Low Fertility Regimes and Demographic and Societal Change (pp. 15-35). Springer: Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64061-7_2

Biroul Naţional de Statistică al Republicii Moldova. (2021). Analiza sărăciei monetare și a bunăstării gospodăriilor cu copii în baza rezultatelor Cercetării Bugetelor Gospodăriilor Casnice din 2020. Raport analitic. https://statistica.gov.md/public/files/publicatii_electronice/Copiii_Moldovei/Analiza_saraciei_gospodariilor_copii_2020.pdf

Brzozowska, Z. (2021). Attitudinal and behavioural indices of the second demographic transition: Evidence from the last three decades in Europe. Demographic Research, 44, 1115-1132. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.46

Brzozowska, Z. (2015). Female education and fertility under state socialism: evidence from seven Central and South Eastern European countries. Population (English Edition), 70(4), 731-769. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43855798

Buelens, M. (2021) Subnational spatial variations of fertility timing in Europe since 1990. Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography [Online], Space, Society, Territory, document 1000. https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.37887

Chistruga-Sînchevici, I. (2021). Echilibrul dintre muncă și viața de familie: necesități ale părinților și rolul politicilor sociale. INCE. https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.2022.978-9975-89-251-3

Elemer, M. (1999). Analiza de claster. In: Rotariu, T. Metode statistice aplicate în științele sociale. Polirom.

Frejka, T. (2012). The role of contemporary childbearing postponement and recuperation in shaping period fertility trends. In: Comparative Population Studies, 36(4), 927-957. https://doi.org/10.4232/10.CPoS-2011-20en

Gagauz, O. (2022). Sumarul studiului Generații și Gen: Fii vocea generației tale!. https://moldova.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/sumarul_studiului_generatii_si_gen.pdf

Gagauz, O., & Chivaciuc, A. (2021). Youth attitudes towards gender roles within family. Economy and Sociology, (1), 87-98. https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2021.1-08

Gagauz, O., Grigoraş, E. (2017). Restructurarea calendarului nașterilor și declinul Fertilității = Restructuring of the Calendar of Births and Fertility Decline. Revista de Filosofie, Sociologie şi Ştiinţe Politice, 1(173), 104-114. https://ibn.idsi.md/sites/default/files/imag_file/104_114_Restructurarea%20calendarului%20nasterilor%20si%20declinul%20Fertilitatii.pdf

Gagauz, O., Buciuceanu-Vrabie, M., Pahomii, I., Ștîrba, V., Tabac, T., Grigoraș, E., & (2021). Populația Republicii Moldova la 30 de ani de independență: provocări principale și politici necesare. Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice, Centrul de Cercetări Demografice. https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.ccd.2021.978-9975-89-248-3

Grigoraș, E. (2019). Particularities of fertility transition: comprehensive comparative analysis in Republic of Moldova and selected European countries. In: Demography and social economy, 1(35), 53-68. https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2019

Johnson-Hanks, J. (2007). What kind of theory for anthropological demography? Demographic Research, 16, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.1

Johnson-Hanks, J. A., Kreager, P., & Bochow, A. (2017). Vital conjunctures revisited. Fertility, conjuncture, difference: Anthropological approaches to the heterogeneity of modern fertility declines, 36, 326. https://doi.org/10.3167/9781785336041

Kellum, Jane M. (2020 June). A feminist reflective analysis of gender mainstreaming in youth policy and practice in the Republic of Moldova. Economy and Sociology, 1, 98-108. https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-09

Koops, J. C. (2022, July 29). Calculating Contraceptive Prevalence and Unmet Family Planning Need in the Republic of Moldova using the Generations and Gender Survey. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/kebvx

Kulu, H., & Washbrook, E. (2014 September). Residential context, migration and fertility in a modern urban society. Advances in Life Course Research, 21, 168-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2014.01.001

Kulu, H. (2013). Why Do Fertility Levels Vary between Urban and Rural Areas? Regional Studies, 47(6), 895-912. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2011.581276

Lesthaeghe, R. (2014). The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(51), 18112-18115. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1420441111

Lesthaeghe, R. (2020). The second demographic transition, 1986- 2020: sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation-a global update. Genus, 76, 10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00077-4

Lesthaeghe, R. D. van de Kaa. (1986). Twee demografische transities? Bevolking–Groei en Krimp (pp. 9-24). Van Loghum Slaterus.

Matysiak, A., Sobotka, T., & Vignoli, D. (2021). The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis. European Journal of Population, 37, 29-64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-020-09556-y

Mureșan, C., & Hoem, M. (2010). The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility. Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Foerderung der Wissenschaften, 22, 95-114. https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol22/4/22-4.pdf

National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova. (2020). Children of Moldova. Statistical Publication. https://www.unicef.org/moldova/media/4446/file/Copiii_Moldovei_editia_2020.pdf%20small_0.pdf%20.pdf

National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova. (2017). Key results of the 2014 Population and Housing Census. https://statistica.gov.md/newsview.php?l=en&id=5583&idc=168

Republic of Moldova – Generations and Gender Survey. (2020). Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, National Bureau of Statistics (survey sample), UNFPA, NIDI-GGP (as partner and distributor).

Sobotka, T. (2008). Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe. Demographic Research, 19, 171-224. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.8 https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/8/19-8.pdf

Sobotka, T. (2017). Post-transitional fertility: the role of childbearing postponement in fuelling the shift to low and unstable fertility levels. Journal of Biosocial Science, 49, 20-45. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932017000323

Šprocha, B., Bleha, B., & Nováková, G. (2022). Three Decades of Post‐Communist Fertility Transition in a Subnational Context: The Case of Slovakia. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie, 113, 397-411. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12515

Zeman, K., Beaujouan, É, Brzozowska, Z., Sobotka, T. (2018). Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios. Demographic Research, 38, 651-690. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.25

Захаров, Сергей. (2012 23 января-5 февраля). Второй демографический переход и изменение возрастной модели рождаемости. Демоскоп Weekly, 495-496. http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2012/0495/tema05.php

Бурлуцкая, М., Терещенко, O. (2018). Межпоколенная динамика репродуктивного поведения: влияние образования и установок. В: Беларусь: структура семьи, семейные отношения, репродуктивное поведение. Том II. Анализ результатов исследования Поколения и гендер (c. 56–65), Белсэнс.


Abstract views: 3212



How to Cite

Grigoraș, E., & Gagauz, O. (2022). FERTILITY TRANSITION FROM TRADITIONAL TO MODERN MODEL IN MOLDOVA: EXPLORATION IN BASE ON THE GENERATION AND GENDER SURVEY. Economy and Sociology, (1). https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-09