SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND OF THE RESPONSE POLICY IN MOLDOVA: AN INTERGENERATIONAL PERSPECTIVE BASED ON THE COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

Abstract

The author employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated on a Social Accounting Matrix for the Moldovan economy and enhanced with demographic details to answer three questions: 1) what has been the short-term socioeconomic impact of COVID-19, including the distributional ones from the gender and age perspective? 2) how likely were the 2020 policy measures to provide an adequate immediate response to the crisis? and 3) would there exist an alternative, more optimal policy? According to the CGE-based simulation results, cumulative effect of the COVID-19 economic shocks represents around 11% of the Moldovan GDP. All economic sectors are predicted to decline, with transport, HORECA and services to population sectors suffering the heaviest contractions. Transport sector employs predominantly mid-aged men, while the latter two typically employ women. Age- and sex-structure of employment by sectors explain why men aged 25-34 and women aged 15-24 suffer the largest reduction of their wage income (around 10%). Reflecting the income contraction of the breadwinning age categories and reduction in intra-household transfers, children’ consumption declines accordingly. The older generations relying on public pensions are relatively better sheltered against the COVID-19 socioeconomic effects, as pensions remain rather stable. The analysis suggests that the package of measures adopted by Moldovan government has had minor impact, with VAT reduction to HORECA sector having smaller compensatory effect compared to direct payments to infected doctors and labor-related subsidies. A combination of fiscal and structural measures would have provided a socially fairer and economically more efficient response to the crisis.